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Predicting the ecosystem-wide impacts of eradication with limited information using a qualitative modelling approach
Han, Yi1,2; Kristensen, Nadiah P.1,3; Buckley, Yvonne M.4,5; Maple, Dion J.6,9; West, Judith7; McDonald-Madden, Eve8
Corresponding AuthorHan, Yi(yi.han.178@gmail.com)
2020-08-15
Source PublicationECOLOGICAL MODELLING
ISSN0304-3800
Volume430Pages:10
AbstractConservation-motivated eradications may cause unexpected perverse effects, and these undesirable consequences can be difficult to predict due to the paucity of information on species interactions. A probabilistic qualitative approach, which does not require extensive model parameterization, is becoming increasingly accepted and applied to conservation scenarios when information is limited. However, recent work has criticized this approach on philosophical grounds and proposed an alternative non-probabilistic Boolean analysis method, which circumvents the philosophical difficulties. There is a need for exploring the ability of this novel approach for informing conservation decisions. To do so, we applied the first real-world test of the non-probabilistic Boolean approach using a case study of management of Fells catus (feral cat) and Rattus rattus (black rat) on Christmas Island. We also applied the probabilistic approach as a contrast. Our modeling results showed that the probabilistic approach generated ambiguous outcomes, making it impractical to draw management recommendations. In contrast, the non-probabilistic Boolean approach revealed interpretable rules governing species responses, suggesting that while cat management alone is a risky strategy, the risk of negative effects of cat management on native species can be reduced by the addition of rat management. Thus, given limited resources, in combination with cat management it is prudent to prioritize rat management efforts in the habitats of potentially impacted native species of high concern and value. We conclude that the Boolean approach can be very useful when little information is available to model an ecological system and that it provides a way of identifying the potential risks and benefits of management strategies, enabling better informed conservation decision-making in the face of limited knowledge.
KeywordBoolean minimization ecological networks invasive species island conservation multi-species management trophic cascade
DOI10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.109122
Funding OrganizationResearch Computing Centre (RCC), University of Queensland ; Research Computing Centre (RCC), University of Queensland ; Research Computing Centre (RCC), University of Queensland ; Research Computing Centre (RCC), University of Queensland ; Irish Research Council ; Irish Research Council ; Irish Research Council ; Irish Research Council ; ARC Future Fellowship ; ARC Future Fellowship ; ARC Future Fellowship ; ARC Future Fellowship ; Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions ; Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions ; Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions ; Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions ; Research Computing Centre (RCC), University of Queensland ; Research Computing Centre (RCC), University of Queensland ; Research Computing Centre (RCC), University of Queensland ; Research Computing Centre (RCC), University of Queensland ; Irish Research Council ; Irish Research Council ; Irish Research Council ; Irish Research Council ; ARC Future Fellowship ; ARC Future Fellowship ; ARC Future Fellowship ; ARC Future Fellowship ; Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions ; Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions ; Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions ; Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions ; Research Computing Centre (RCC), University of Queensland ; Research Computing Centre (RCC), University of Queensland ; Research Computing Centre (RCC), University of Queensland ; Research Computing Centre (RCC), University of Queensland ; Irish Research Council ; Irish Research Council ; Irish Research Council ; Irish Research Council ; ARC Future Fellowship ; ARC Future Fellowship ; ARC Future Fellowship ; ARC Future Fellowship ; Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions ; Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions ; Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions ; Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions ; Research Computing Centre (RCC), University of Queensland ; Research Computing Centre (RCC), University of Queensland ; Research Computing Centre (RCC), University of Queensland ; Research Computing Centre (RCC), University of Queensland ; Irish Research Council ; Irish Research Council ; Irish Research Council ; Irish Research Council ; ARC Future Fellowship ; ARC Future Fellowship ; ARC Future Fellowship ; ARC Future Fellowship ; Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions ; Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions ; Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions ; Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions
Indexed BySCI ; SCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectResearch Computing Centre (RCC), University of Queensland ; Irish Research Council[2017/2018 IRCLA/2017/60] ; ARC Future Fellowship ; Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions
WOS Research AreaEnvironmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS SubjectEcology
WOS IDWOS:000540447700009
WOS KeywordINVASIVE SPECIES REMOVAL ; ECOLOGICAL INTERACTIONS ; MESOPREDATOR RELEASE ; PRESS PERTURBATIONS ; CHRISTMAS-ISLAND ; BOOLEAN ANALYSIS ; FOOD WEBS ; CONSERVATION ; CATS ; BIODIVERSITY
PublisherELSEVIER
Funding OrganizationResearch Computing Centre (RCC), University of Queensland ; Research Computing Centre (RCC), University of Queensland ; Research Computing Centre (RCC), University of Queensland ; Research Computing Centre (RCC), University of Queensland ; Irish Research Council ; Irish Research Council ; Irish Research Council ; Irish Research Council ; ARC Future Fellowship ; ARC Future Fellowship ; ARC Future Fellowship ; ARC Future Fellowship ; Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions ; Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions ; Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions ; Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions ; Research Computing Centre (RCC), University of Queensland ; Research Computing Centre (RCC), University of Queensland ; Research Computing Centre (RCC), University of Queensland ; Research Computing Centre (RCC), University of Queensland ; Irish Research Council ; Irish Research Council ; Irish Research Council ; Irish Research Council ; ARC Future Fellowship ; ARC Future Fellowship ; ARC Future Fellowship ; ARC Future Fellowship ; Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions ; Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions ; Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions ; Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions ; Research Computing Centre (RCC), University of Queensland ; Research Computing Centre (RCC), University of Queensland ; Research Computing Centre (RCC), University of Queensland ; Research Computing Centre (RCC), University of Queensland ; Irish Research Council ; Irish Research Council ; Irish Research Council ; Irish Research Council ; ARC Future Fellowship ; ARC Future Fellowship ; ARC Future Fellowship ; ARC Future Fellowship ; Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions ; Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions ; Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions ; Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions ; Research Computing Centre (RCC), University of Queensland ; Research Computing Centre (RCC), University of Queensland ; Research Computing Centre (RCC), University of Queensland ; Research Computing Centre (RCC), University of Queensland ; Irish Research Council ; Irish Research Council ; Irish Research Council ; Irish Research Council ; ARC Future Fellowship ; ARC Future Fellowship ; ARC Future Fellowship ; ARC Future Fellowship ; Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions ; Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions ; Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions ; Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions
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Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.ihb.ac.cn/handle/342005/38745
Collection其他_期刊论文
Corresponding AuthorHan, Yi
Affiliation1.Univ Queensland, Ctr Biodivers & Conservat Sci, Sch Biol Sci, St Lucia, Qld 4072, Australia
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Aquat Biodivers & Conservat, Inst Hydrobiol, Wuhan 430072, Peoples R China
3.Natl Univ Singapore, Dept Biol Sci, 14 Sci Dr 4, Singapore 117543, Singapore
4.Univ Queensland, ARC Ctr Excellence Environm Decis, Brisbane, Qld 4072, Australia
5.Trinity Coll Dublin, Sch Nat Sci, Zool, Dublin 2, Ireland
6.Christmas Isl Natl Pk, Indian Ocean, WA 6798, Australia
7.Pk Australia, Dept Environm & Energy, 51 Allara St, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
8.Univ Queensland, Ctr Biodivers & Conservat Sci, Sch Geog Planning & Environm Management, St Lucia, Qld 4072, Australia
9.Booderee Natl Pk, Village Rd, Jervis Bay, NSW 2540, Australia
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Han, Yi,Kristensen, Nadiah P.,Buckley, Yvonne M.,et al. Predicting the ecosystem-wide impacts of eradication with limited information using a qualitative modelling approach[J]. ECOLOGICAL MODELLING,2020,430:10.
APA Han, Yi,Kristensen, Nadiah P.,Buckley, Yvonne M.,Maple, Dion J.,West, Judith,&McDonald-Madden, Eve.(2020).Predicting the ecosystem-wide impacts of eradication with limited information using a qualitative modelling approach.ECOLOGICAL MODELLING,430,10.
MLA Han, Yi,et al."Predicting the ecosystem-wide impacts of eradication with limited information using a qualitative modelling approach".ECOLOGICAL MODELLING 430(2020):10.
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