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Modelling potential impacts of climate change on water and nitrate export from a mid-sized, semiarid watershed in the US Southwest
Ye, Lin1; Grimm, Nancy B.2; Grimm, NB (reprint author), Arizona State Univ, Sch Life Sci, POB 874501, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA.
2013-09-01
Source PublicationCLIMATIC CHANGE
ISSN0165-0009
Volume120Issue:1-2Pages:419-431
AbstractThe impacts of climate change on water and nitrogen cycles in arid central Arizona (USA) were investigated by integrating the Second Generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM2) and a widely used, physical process-based model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). With statistically downscaled daily climate data from the CGCM2 as model input, SWAT predicted increased potential evapotranspiration and decreased surface runoff, lateral flow, soil water, and groundwater recharge, which suggests serious consequences for the water cycle in this desert catchment in the future. Specifically, stream discharge is projected to decrease by 31 % in the 2020s, 47 % in the 2050s, and 56 % in the 2080s compared to the mean discharge for the base period (0.73 m(3)/s). A flow-duration analysis reveals that the projected reduction of stream discharge in the future is attributable to significant decreases in mid-range and low-flow conditions; however, flood peaks would show a slight increase in the future. The drier and hotter future also will decrease the rate of nitrogen mineralization in the catchment and ultimately, nitrate export from the stream. Since mean mineralization rate would decrease by 15 % in the 2020s, 28 % in the 2050s, and 35 % in the 2080s compared to the based period (9.3 g N ha(-1) d(-1)), the combined impact of reduced catchment mineralization and reduced streamflow would predict declining nitrate export: from today's mean value of 30 kg N/d, to 20, 15 and 12 kg N/d by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively.; The impacts of climate change on water and nitrogen cycles in arid central Arizona (USA) were investigated by integrating the Second Generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM2) and a widely used, physical process-based model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). With statistically downscaled daily climate data from the CGCM2 as model input, SWAT predicted increased potential evapotranspiration and decreased surface runoff, lateral flow, soil water, and groundwater recharge, which suggests serious consequences for the water cycle in this desert catchment in the future. Specifically, stream discharge is projected to decrease by 31 % in the 2020s, 47 % in the 2050s, and 56 % in the 2080s compared to the mean discharge for the base period (0.73 m(3)/s). A flow-duration analysis reveals that the projected reduction of stream discharge in the future is attributable to significant decreases in mid-range and low-flow conditions; however, flood peaks would show a slight increase in the future. The drier and hotter future also will decrease the rate of nitrogen mineralization in the catchment and ultimately, nitrate export from the stream. Since mean mineralization rate would decrease by 15 % in the 2020s, 28 % in the 2050s, and 35 % in the 2080s compared to the based period (9.3 g N ha(-1) d(-1)), the combined impact of reduced catchment mineralization and reduced streamflow would predict declining nitrate export: from today's mean value of 30 kg N/d, to 20, 15 and 12 kg N/d by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively.
SubtypeArticle
KeywordAssessment-tool Swat Model Nitrogen Soil Hydrology Ecosystem Simulations Phosphorus Responses Erosion
Department[Ye, Lin] Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Hydrobiol, State Key Lab Freshwater Ecol & Biotechnol, Wuhan 430072, Peoples R China ; [Grimm, Nancy B.] Arizona State Univ, Sch Life Sci, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA
DOI10.1007/s10584-013-0827-z
WOS HeadingsScience & Technology ; Life Sciences & Biomedicine ; Physical Sciences
Funding OrganizationSycamore Creek LTREB (NSF) [DEB-0918262]; Central Arizona-Phoenix LTER [DEB-0423704, BCS-1026865] ; Sycamore Creek LTREB (NSF) [DEB-0918262]; Central Arizona-Phoenix LTER [DEB-0423704, BCS-1026865] ; Sycamore Creek LTREB (NSF) [DEB-0918262]; Central Arizona-Phoenix LTER [DEB-0423704, BCS-1026865] ; Sycamore Creek LTREB (NSF) [DEB-0918262]; Central Arizona-Phoenix LTER [DEB-0423704, BCS-1026865]
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
WOS Research AreaEnvironmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS SubjectEnvironmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000323276900029
WOS KeywordASSESSMENT-TOOL ; SWAT MODEL ; NITROGEN ; SOIL ; HYDROLOGY ; ECOSYSTEM ; SIMULATIONS ; PHOSPHORUS ; RESPONSES ; EROSION
Funding OrganizationSycamore Creek LTREB (NSF) [DEB-0918262]; Central Arizona-Phoenix LTER [DEB-0423704, BCS-1026865] ; Sycamore Creek LTREB (NSF) [DEB-0918262]; Central Arizona-Phoenix LTER [DEB-0423704, BCS-1026865] ; Sycamore Creek LTREB (NSF) [DEB-0918262]; Central Arizona-Phoenix LTER [DEB-0423704, BCS-1026865] ; Sycamore Creek LTREB (NSF) [DEB-0918262]; Central Arizona-Phoenix LTER [DEB-0423704, BCS-1026865]
Citation statistics
Cited Times:32[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.ihb.ac.cn/handle/342005/19547
Collection淡水生态学研究中心_期刊论文
Corresponding AuthorGrimm, NB (reprint author), Arizona State Univ, Sch Life Sci, POB 874501, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA.
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Hydrobiol, State Key Lab Freshwater Ecol & Biotechnol, Wuhan 430072, Peoples R China
2.Arizona State Univ, Sch Life Sci, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Ye, Lin,Grimm, Nancy B.,Grimm, NB . Modelling potential impacts of climate change on water and nitrate export from a mid-sized, semiarid watershed in the US Southwest[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2013,120(1-2):419-431.
APA Ye, Lin,Grimm, Nancy B.,&Grimm, NB .(2013).Modelling potential impacts of climate change on water and nitrate export from a mid-sized, semiarid watershed in the US Southwest.CLIMATIC CHANGE,120(1-2),419-431.
MLA Ye, Lin,et al."Modelling potential impacts of climate change on water and nitrate export from a mid-sized, semiarid watershed in the US Southwest".CLIMATIC CHANGE 120.1-2(2013):419-431.
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