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题名: Modelling potential impacts of climate change on water and nitrate export from a mid-sized, semiarid watershed in the US Southwest
作者: Ye, Lin1; Grimm, Nancy B.2
通讯作者: Grimm, NB (reprint author), Arizona State Univ, Sch Life Sci, POB 874501, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA.
关键词: ASSESSMENT-TOOL ; SWAT MODEL ; NITROGEN ; SOIL ; HYDROLOGY ; ECOSYSTEM ; SIMULATIONS ; PHOSPHORUS ; RESPONSES ; EROSION
刊名: CLIMATIC CHANGE
发表日期: 2013-09-01
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0827-z
卷: 120, 期:1-2, 页:419-431
收录类别: SCI
文章类型: Article
部门归属: [Ye, Lin] Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Hydrobiol, State Key Lab Freshwater Ecol & Biotechnol, Wuhan 430072, Peoples R China ; [Grimm, Nancy B.] Arizona State Univ, Sch Life Sci, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA
WOS标题词: Science & Technology ; Life Sciences & Biomedicine ; Physical Sciences
资助者: Sycamore Creek LTREB (NSF) [DEB-0918262]; Central Arizona-Phoenix LTER [DEB-0423704, BCS-1026865]
类目[WOS]: Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
研究领域[WOS]: Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
摘要: The impacts of climate change on water and nitrogen cycles in arid central Arizona (USA) were investigated by integrating the Second Generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM2) and a widely used, physical process-based model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). With statistically downscaled daily climate data from the CGCM2 as model input, SWAT predicted increased potential evapotranspiration and decreased surface runoff, lateral flow, soil water, and groundwater recharge, which suggests serious consequences for the water cycle in this desert catchment in the future. Specifically, stream discharge is projected to decrease by 31 % in the 2020s, 47 % in the 2050s, and 56 % in the 2080s compared to the mean discharge for the base period (0.73 m(3)/s). A flow-duration analysis reveals that the projected reduction of stream discharge in the future is attributable to significant decreases in mid-range and low-flow conditions; however, flood peaks would show a slight increase in the future. The drier and hotter future also will decrease the rate of nitrogen mineralization in the catchment and ultimately, nitrate export from the stream. Since mean mineralization rate would decrease by 15 % in the 2020s, 28 % in the 2050s, and 35 % in the 2080s compared to the based period (9.3 g N ha(-1) d(-1)), the combined impact of reduced catchment mineralization and reduced streamflow would predict declining nitrate export: from today's mean value of 30 kg N/d, to 20, 15 and 12 kg N/d by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively.
英文摘要: The impacts of climate change on water and nitrogen cycles in arid central Arizona (USA) were investigated by integrating the Second Generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM2) and a widely used, physical process-based model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). With statistically downscaled daily climate data from the CGCM2 as model input, SWAT predicted increased potential evapotranspiration and decreased surface runoff, lateral flow, soil water, and groundwater recharge, which suggests serious consequences for the water cycle in this desert catchment in the future. Specifically, stream discharge is projected to decrease by 31 % in the 2020s, 47 % in the 2050s, and 56 % in the 2080s compared to the mean discharge for the base period (0.73 m(3)/s). A flow-duration analysis reveals that the projected reduction of stream discharge in the future is attributable to significant decreases in mid-range and low-flow conditions; however, flood peaks would show a slight increase in the future. The drier and hotter future also will decrease the rate of nitrogen mineralization in the catchment and ultimately, nitrate export from the stream. Since mean mineralization rate would decrease by 15 % in the 2020s, 28 % in the 2050s, and 35 % in the 2080s compared to the based period (9.3 g N ha(-1) d(-1)), the combined impact of reduced catchment mineralization and reduced streamflow would predict declining nitrate export: from today's mean value of 30 kg N/d, to 20, 15 and 12 kg N/d by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively.
关键词[WOS]: ASSESSMENT-TOOL ; SWAT MODEL ; NITROGEN ; SOIL ; HYDROLOGY ; ECOSYSTEM ; SIMULATIONS ; PHOSPHORUS ; RESPONSES ; EROSION
语种: 英语
WOS记录号: WOS:000323276900029
ISSN号: 0165-0009
Citation statistics:
内容类型: 期刊论文
URI标识: http://ir.ihb.ac.cn/handle/342005/19547
Appears in Collections:淡水生态学研究中心_期刊论文

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作者单位: 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Hydrobiol, State Key Lab Freshwater Ecol & Biotechnol, Wuhan 430072, Peoples R China
2.Arizona State Univ, Sch Life Sci, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA

Recommended Citation:
Ye, Lin; Grimm, Nancy B..Modelling potential impacts of climate change on water and nitrate export from a mid-sized, semiarid watershed in the US Southwest,CLIMATIC CHANGE,2013,120(41276):419-431
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